40% chance of storm passing Gulf spill by end of August: RMS
RMS suggested there is just over a 15% chance that a tropical storm or hurricane will pass within 100 miles of the Macondo oil well before the end of July, rising to more than 40% by the end of August, requiring precautionary evacuation of the replacement drilling platform and surface oil recovery vessels.
RMS analysis also indicates that in an active hurricane season - as is predicted for 2010 - there is around a 13% probability that a hurricane will pass directly over the current extent of the Gulf of
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