Lloyd's: World Cup kicks off with a bang as reality bites for favourites

Hosts Russia opened with a 5-0 thrashing of Saudi Arabia, upsetting the official FIFA rankings as they placed three spots above them. However, with an insurable value more than double (Russia £280m vs Saudi Arabia £103m), the Lloyd’s rankings predicted that this would be a clear win for the Russians.

Undoubtedly, the biggest shock of the first round of group stage matches was Mexico’s victory at the expense of reigning world champions Germany. With an insurable value gap of more than £800m, not many – including Lloyd’s – saw this result coming, which only goes to show that anything can happen in football.

Group H has certainly lived up to its billing as the ‘Group of Death’. With just £26.5m separating Colombia, Poland and Senegal, it is all to play for. The team with the highest insurable value, Colombia (£315m) came unstuck against group outsiders Japan, who have the lowest insurable value of the four teams (£153m). Senegal (£311.5m) also overcame Poland (£288.5) in the group, leaving it wide open as we moved into the second round of group games.

One of the most captivating matches of the tournament so far saw Portugal take on Spain. Notwithstanding Ronaldo’s heroics and the Iberian draw, Spain should still come out on top with total earning power higher than the combined value of its Group B competitors and 16 times greater than the value of the Iranian side – although Spain were made to work hard for the 1-0 win against the Iranian side in their second match.

Meanwhile, our predicted tournament winner France overcame a stubborn Australia in their first game. With an insurance value gap of over £1.3bn between the squads, it’s impressive that the Oceanic side kept the affair to a close 2-1. France has also faced Peru in their last match, winning to continue their march to the last 16.

The grip of football fever can assume various guises and the insurance industry is no exception. So as you continue to complete the office wallchart and watch your team steadily progress or disappoint – be it because of the loss of star player or simply being knocked out by a better (but perhaps much lower valued from an insurance perspective) team, think about any insurance consequences they may play out as the tournament develops.

We will continue to track progress of the teams and assess how successful our model has been in identifying the winners and losers over the next few weeks in Post. To learn more about our predictions for the tournament, visit Lloyds.com/DreamTeam.