ISE 2012: France to suffer extreme temperatures due to global warming

Speaking about how temperatures are predicted to rise, he said: "My feeling is that there will be rises of two to three degrees by the end of the century on average.

"In Europe this means southern France is likely to hit temperatures of 45 degrees and Indian temperatures will be around 50 degrees."

He explained that this change would mean an increase in precipitation in winter but less in southern Europe in summer.

"We are going to get drier summers but, if it is raining then it will be pouring, which will have a big impact on sewer systems. Each degree increase leads to a 14% increase in precipitation," he said.

Extreme weather would lead to an increase in tropical cyclones, but wind climates and storm surge levels would be largely unaffected.

"As global mean temperatures increase, we will see extremes in weather and sea levels rising," he said.

Chris Myers, head of global ERM and head of rating agency advisory for EMEA at Aon Benfield, questioned why France would be particularly affected.

Sterl explained: "France is on the border of wet and dry and in an average year the evaporation levels will be acceptable. But if there is less rain in Europe in the summer, dry soil will lead to increased temperatures. This will occur more often and this change will lead to extreme high temperatures."

Andrea Corbino, RSA Italy country managing director, then asked whether ice melt would lead to problems with the Gulf Stream.

Sterl assured delegates that this would not happen. "The Gulf Stream is affected by two things: wind and salt content. There will be more precipitation or melting of glaciers, but it won't amount to enough to shut of the Gulf Stream, although it may be enough to slightly reduce it."